Mmm, Yummy Crow

I guess after being nigh on suicidal after game 1 and incredulous after game 2, I should write about the Mavericks unbelievable championship. It shocked the basketball world. In fact, I think it shocked the Mavs. It seemed at the end of the game that as time was ticking down they just looked at each other as if they were saying, did that just happen? Am I dreaming? The Heat were stunned, too. After one of the Heat's final baskets, when they had to foul to try to prolong the game, they let Jason Terry dribble around like it was a shoot around. They seemed to mail the last 5 minutes of the game in, which was a common theme in the finals.

I listened to a podcast of Miami sports writer Dan Lebatard with Bill Simmons recapping the finals. I didn't count, but he probably said 10 times that the Heat were close to winning all the games and if Lebron James had played to his averages then they would have won. I obviously can't dispute any of that, but the question has to be asked why did those things happen? Why did Lebron struggle so much in the series and the fourth quarters in particular? Why did the Mavs own the last few minutes of the games they won? How were they able to take apart the Heat defense late in games? These are legitimate questions because that is what happened on a consistent basis throughout the series.

After the historic comeback in game 2, the assumption (at least on my part) was that the Mavs it was a blip on the radar. They made a few shots and surprised the Heat, but it wouldn't happen again and game 3 seemed to prove that out. But in game 4, Mavs outscored the Heat by 7 in the 4th and won by 3. In game 5, the Heat were up again by 4 with four mins to go, but lost by 9! In game 6, the Mavs led most of the game, but after the Heat got to within four early in the fourth, the Mavs answered quickly and the Heat never got closer than seven after that.

The thing is in just about every playoff game or series, one can always point to a couple of plays here and there that won or lost the game. Rare is the game, especially late in the playoffs when a team gets so outclassed that they can't play the "what if" game. What if that borderline call went our way? What if the shot had fallen in instead of out (or vice versa)? What if that guy didn't get hurt? In the 2006 Finals, Mavs fan were asking what if the Mavericks had been able to pull out game 3 when they had a big lead and looked poised to go up 3-0? What if the refs hadn't given game 5 to the Heat? Here in 2011, what happened in the fourth quarters goes beyond what if. If it happens once, ok, those things happen. Four times? Whatever happened (and I'm still not quite sure how it happened) was real. The Mavs, shockingly enough, were better than the Heat. The Heat clearly had the talent advantage, but this is a case where the Mavericks' whole was great than the sum of it's parts.

For me, I didn't truly believe until the end. I expected them to collapse or the refs to make sure there was a game 7. At last, the Mavs were stronger than whatever forces were arrayed against them. It was a ton of fun.

The Worst Sports Week of My Life, Part 2

The NBA finals. I could not possibly be less excited about it. Of all the teams to face, it had to be the Heat. Unbelievable. This sucks.

The problem is I'm experiencing flash backs of the worst sports week of my life- the 2006 NBA finals. I've been trying to think of worse sports weeks. I'm sure there have been days that have been worse: just about every Cowboys experience since 1996, watching Jo Jo Jones run around Hardin Simmons my senior year, and various and a sundry Rangers ridiculousness over the years.

What this feels like is Yankees/ Rangers in the late 90s. We know what's going to happen and there is nothing anyone can do about it. You know it and I know it.

Oh, how I wish I was wrong. I wish Dirk had someone who we could trust next to him. This is Dirk and the 2003 All Star Team. I'd love to see what Caron Butler would do for this team.

Of all the teams to play...

They may win one or two, but I doubt it. My prediction (made after game 1) is Heat 4-1. Prove me wrong, Mavs. Please, prove me wrong.

Message from Chuck Greenberg

The following was written by Chuck Greenberg, Rangers co-owner, originally posted here. He may be from Pittsburgh but he speaks like a Ranger lifer here. Let's go Ranger fans, it's our time now.

Rangers CEO Chuck Greenberg posted the following message on his Facebook page.

This season has transcended expectations and transformed the psyche and hearts of legions of Rangers fans across Texas and throughout our country and beyond. At the core of the remarkable journey we have shared together is a ballclub and a community who collectively have consigned the conventional wisdom of the past to the dust bins of history, busting myths and charting a new course previously thought to be unattainable.

Can't pitch successfully in Rangers Ballpark. Wrong.

Can't compete successfully late in the season because the heat will break you down. Wrong.

Fans will lose interest when training camp opens. Wrong.

Fans won't come to Rangers Ballpark after the All Star break because it's too hot. Wrong.

Rangers can't win a playoff series. Wrong.

Rangers can't win a playoff game at home. Wrong.

Rangers can't beat the Yankees in the playoffs. Wrong.

Rangers can't get to the World Series. Wrong.

Rangers can't captivate the hearts and emotions of fans new and old deep into the fall. Wrong.

And on and on and on....

I can't even begin to count the memorable moments we have shared this year thanks to a very special group of players with hearts and smiles as big as Texas, who always pull together, stand up for one another, and who have changed the sports landscape here in the Metroplex forever.

But here is a simple reality. Monday will be the last game played in Rangers Ballpark this year. We all owe it to ourselves, our players and each other, to celebrate with passion, enthusiasm and indefatigable belief from lineup cards to the final out, loud and proud.

The defining team of my young life was the 1979, "We are Family" Pittsburgh Pirates. I have often remarked how much this Rangers club reminds me of that team, with a confident but friendly swagger and an abundance of character and personality.

Now these two teams have something else in common. Both fell behind 3-1 in the World Series. Kent Tekulve, the great closer from the '79 Pirates, texted me after tonight's game to pass along this story. Before Game 5, Willie Stargell told his teammates:

"We are playing in front of the whole world. We may not win this thing, but before we go, let's show the world how the Pirates really play baseball."

The Pirates, playing against a team whose colors were black and orange, won Game 5. Then they returned to Baltimore and won Game 6. Then they won Game 7.

I know our players will show everyone how the Rangers play baseball tomorrow. As fans, let's do the same. We have one final opportunity this season to show the world what we have accomplished together and the passion we all hold for our players and our shared dreams.

The World Series is going back to San Francisco. And then there will be one final piece of conventional wisdom to prove wrong....

Believe.

Chuck

A kid's dream

So this is what it takes to get me writing again.

You know, it's been pretty tough on Dallas sports fans for a few years now. The Stars haven't been truly competitive for a decade and it's been four years since the Mavs choked in the Finals, beginning their slide to mediocrity. We thought the Cowboys were on the way to playing in the Super Bowl in their own stadium, before we were reminded they are still owned by Jerry and coached (for now) by Wade.

But the Rangers.

For my entire life, the Rangers have been more or less irrelevant in baseball. Sure, they'd score lots of runs, but with no pitching to speak of and the August swoon as a built-in excuse, they never really got your hopes too high. And with Tom Hicks slashing payroll the last few years--why does a top five market have a bottom five payroll?--the Rangers should have been trending down.

But things started changing five years ago, without anyone really noticing what was going on. First Jon Daniels was named GM. If you've been reading here for a while, you know I've been none too complimentary of JD in the past. Don't worry--a proper apology is coming later. After a year, he named Ron Washington manager, and two years after that Nolan Ryan joined the team as president. Along the way, Daniels made several significant trades that stocked the farm system. This year, it all came together, and combined with the eventual purchase of the team by the Greenberg-Ryan group, the Rangers were poised for great things.

And if that's all there was, it would be great. But there is so much more to this team. Simply put, they have "it"--that something that you can't quite put a finger on, but it's there nonetheless. The Red Sox as the self-proclaimed Idiots had it in 2004. The Patriots had it 2001 on their way to their first Super Bowl, just like the Rams two years earlier with the Greatest Show on Turf. It is evidenced by the Claw and the Antler, which some around baseball have mocked. That's fine--we're having fun anyway. But mock at your own peril, because you are mocking It. Maybe you call it chemistry, fate, destiny, desire, want-to. Whatever. Just know that the Rangers have It.

And only those of us who have been through the long, lean years can really appreciate how special that is. I grew up in Dallas as a fan of all three (pre-Stars) major sports teams, but the Rangers were my favorite, for a few reasons. I played little league baseball, so I readily identified with the game. Baseball was on TV more, just by the nature of the long season. But mostly, it was because those were the games I went to. Sure, we went to a Mavs game or two each year, and I went to my one-and-only Cowboys game when I was 21. But I grew up in the 70's as a Junior Ranger. I was at old Arlington Stadium when that logo you see above wasn't retro. I remember powder blues. I had fan giveaways: hats and plastic helmets and shirts and backpacks and pennants. And greatest of all, a red Rangers Louisville Slugger. I went to the top of the bleachers and peeked over the edge at the parking lot. I went to summer clinics where I got to walk out on the field and listen to real pro ballplayers talk about what they did and how they did it. Night of high school graduation? I went to Arlington with some friends to watch the great Nolan Ryan pitch. In high school and college, we'd go to games late, because after the fourth inning they'd let you in for free. I was there on April 19, 1996, when the Rangers batted around three times in an hour long bottom of the eighth and put up 18 on the Orioles, beating them 26-7. My first date with my wife? Dinner at TGI Friday's Front Row Grill and two seats in the Home Run Porch. One of the the last things I did before leaving Dallas? Take pictures out at the Ballpark. This team was a huge part of my life, from childhood into adulthood.

I've been away from Dallas for eight years. I go to Orioles Sunday home games all season at beautiful Camden Yards. I enjoy the games there. They're having a rough time on the field, but it's a great organization that takes care of its fans. Still, I miss the Rangers, and nothing can replace that. I've got too much history in Arlington.

I've waited nearly 37 years for this magical run at the World Series, and I've never enjoyed sports success so much. Not the Cowboys' Super Bowls or the Stars' Stanley Cups. Not even the Longhorns' National Championship. The plus side of all those Rangers lean years? The last few weeks have been a string of Firsts. First playoff series win. First home playoff win. First American League Pennant.

Up next: First World Series Appearance by the Texas Rangers. It's been a long time coming, and it's all the sweeter for it.

It's time.

Return to blogging: MLB predictions and Ranger questions

I haven't posted in a long time. Having a toddler, a full time job, and being in school part time will do that. Does this mean I'm back posting a lot? Probably not, but I had some Ranger opinions and MLB predictions I wanted to throw out there before the season started.

First, my Ranger concerns.
I am a Ranger homer if there ever was one. I always have hope that this year will be different and we will relive the glory days of the late 90s when the Rangers won a playoff game. Ahh, memories. In fact, even on this blog, I have spouted unvarnished optimism that only a true rose colored glasses wearing homer could say. Finally, it seems this may be the year. Listening to podcasts and reading some of the national writers, many believe Texas could actually breakthrough and make it back to the playoffs. So why am I worried? I'll give you a list.
1. The rotation is deep, but full of question marks. Scott Feldman- can he do it again? He will probably regress a little, but how much? Rich Harden has looked terrible in spring training. CJ Wilson hasn't started since 2005 and he was terrible then. Can be a true #2 like he is listed in Ranger rotation? Colby Lewis was terrible the last time he was starter, too. He was great in Japan, but can be good here? Spring training stories like Matt Harrison (best shape of his life, added velocity, etc) are a dime a dozen. Does it mean anything? Is Tommy Hunter anything more than a #4 starter? Is Brandon McCarthy ever going to make us stop throwing up whenever John Danks does something? When is Derek Holland going to be ready?
2. The lineup has question marks: Chris Davis was terrible last year, so can he better? Will Ian Kinsler be able to stay healthy (not so far this year)? Will Elvis Andrus progress offensively? Will Michael Young regress? Can Hamilton stay healthy? Will Borbon's poor walk rate kill the Ranger offense? Will either catcher be any good?
3. The bullpen without Wilson is a concern. I wonder if the Rangers gain enough in moving CJ Wilson to the rotation to make up for what they lost in the bullpen? Darren Oliver is their only lefty right now. Who will close if (when) Frankie Francisco gets hurt?
4. Is Ron Washington's cocaine use last year really no big deal?

I still have hope, but for some reason, my blind optimism just isn't there.

Here are my picks
AL East: Yankees (FAIL! FAIL! FAIL!)
AL Central: Twins
AL East: Rangers (disregard everything I just wrote)
Wild Card: Rays (I just can't in good conscious pick the Yankees and the Red Sox)
AL Champion: Yankees (suck)

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Astros (Just kidding... I'm picking the Cardinals. The Astros will probably loss 100 games)
NL West: Rockies
Wild Card: Braves
NL Champion: Braves (A wild card team goes to the World Series all the time. Why can't I pick one as well.)
World Champion: Yankees (I'm picking them to win because my predictions are never right. Even in the 2nd chance bracket for the NCAA tournament, I got exactly ZERO in the Final Four. I'm trying to reverse jinx the Yankees)

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
AL MVP: Joe Mauer
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL MVP: Ryan Howard

110 Percent Madness 2010

The bracket is set and 110 Percent invites you to pick against our 'pros' in our third annual Pick 'em challenge. Click on 110 Percent Madness Tournament Challenge to play.

Here are the details:
Group name: 110 Percent
Group ID# 78381
Password: teameffort

This is hosted by Yahoo!, so you will need a Yahoo! ID to play.

We have a tweak to the scoring this year. In addition to the standard scoring (1 point for first round, 2 for second, 4 for third, 8-fourth, 16-fifth, 32-championship), there are also bonus points up for grabs. All you have to do is pick the upsets. For a correct upset pick, you will get bonus points equal to the difference in the seeds. For example, if you correctly pick a 10 seed over a 7 in the first round, you will get one point for the win and three bonus points for the upset (10-7).

Also, we'll do some crazy brackets like last year--coin flip, free throw percentage, that sort of thing. If you have an idea you'd like to try for a crazy bracket and have an extra email account, go ahead and give it a shot, naming the bracket appropriately (ex: Coin Flip) so we all know what brainless method is schooling us. Please, though, only one serious bracket per person--any extras will be deleted.

Good luck and let the madness begin.

110 Percent Pick'em Contest 2009 (and more!)

If anyone is still reading around these parts, for the third year, we have posted an NFL Pick'em contest.

To join, go to Yahoo! Fantasy Sports Pro Football Pick'em. Here is the important information:

League name: 110 Percent

Group ID#: 34198

Password: allonthefield

New for this year is confidence points. We have had some tight races in the past, so maybe adding confidence values will help in that regard.

Also, we will have a Survival Football game this year. All you have to do is pick one winner each week. Sounds easy, right? Give it a try and see... 

League name: 110 Percent

Group ID#: 12914

Password: allonthefield

Be sure to join up before the early games on Thursday, and good luck!

Pittsburgh and Detroit - Stanley Cup Rematch

So, this doesn't happen too often. The last time was 1984. A rematch in the Stanley Cup finals. The best team for over a decade vs. the young upstarts who have two of the best players in the game today. I'm so excited for this series, I can't even describe it. I love the way both teams play (as much as I hate Detroit, they are very talented), I love the skill level, I love the toughness involved. This is going to be great. Here are three keys to the series:
1. Marc-Andre Fleury. Probably the most important part of this years' playoff success for Pittsburgh has been the play of Fleury. He has had some softies, but always has rebounded with a mental toughness he didn't seem to possess last year. He will have to fight through Detroit's screens, and they are good at them, in order to survive.
2. Detroit's health. Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Ericsson have missed time, and while Lidstrom is going to be back (Ericsson too?), Datsyuk is a game time decision. The Red Wings were able to get past the Blackhawks without those players, but the Penguins are in a different class. They are much deeper and talented than anyone the Red Wings have played so far.
3. Coaching. Specifically Bylsma. He is a rookie coach, but brought this team out of a mid-season slump which had them out of the playoffs to the Conference Finals. He's the real deal, but Babcock and his team won the year before. Should be interesting.

Honorable Mentions: Detroit's "Going to the net", Pittsburgh's added toughness, Malkin's presence, Hossa's defection.

Before these playoffs, I wasn't that impressed with Crosby. I preferred the flash of Ovechkin and Sid the kid seemed almost dull in comparison. I know why now. I never watched him that closely. His drive and determination are so impressive. He and Malkin are the real deal. I've been won over. I'm officially a fan. Despite the fact that Detroit is a powerhouse, and most peoples' pick, I'm picking Pittsburgh in 7. I hope that they can rub it in Marian Hossa's face for picking the wrong team. I hope that the league's new superstars can hoist the Cup. Most of all, I'm hoping for a great series, and I doubt I'll be disappointed.

Thoughts on the Rangers

I know it's been a long time since I posted, but between a baby, school, a new job, and the goal of running a freakin half marathon, I haven't had time. Instead of 110%, I've got about 2%. It'll just have to do right now.

For the last two years, I've given ridiculously optimistic outlooks for the upcoming Ranger season and then watch them come out and play like crap. So this year I don't have the time to really write anything and they come out of the gate playing pretty well. At this point, they are 8 games over .500 and 3 games ahead of the Angels in the AL West (after winning the first game of the double header with the As they are now 9 games over. Good times.) A pretty heady place for this team to be at this point in the season. Unfortunately, the point is still May. It's a long way from October and the dog days of July and August that have killed so many good Ranger teams are still a month away.

It's probably good that I didn't write this review last week right after they swept the Angels and Mariners at home. After getting swept by the Tigers in Detroit and losing 2 of 3 to the Yankees (surrounded by a sweep of the Astros which is really no great shakes), I'm not real giddy about the Rangers right now. In fact, I'm not real sure how to feel about the Rangers right now. I should be feeling good, but I think I've been burned more than a couple of times. Perhaps I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. Anyway, here are some things I like and dislike about this team as it is presently constructed.

1. Elvis Andrus and the defense. The clearest improvement of the Rangers is the defense. Andrus over Young is an upgrade at short. Young over Blalock/ Davis/ Metcalf/ Vazquez is an upgrade at third. Davis over Blalock/ Shelton/ Catalanotto/ Broussard is an upgrade at first. Kinsler and Saltalamacchia have both improved in their defense. We know the pitching needs an upgrade, but a good way to help a pitching staff is the shore up the defense. How many plays has Andrus made that Young couldn't have caught with a net? Those are outs that the team didn't make last year. And Elvis has been much better than expected. Everyone thought he'd be able to flash the leather, but he has more than held his own at bat, being the rookie leader in on base percentage, slugging and batting average among qualifiers. Remember he's 20. He'd be the 3rd youngest player in AAA. Wow.

2. The arrival of Derek Holland, the Rangers #2 prospect according to Baseball America. In past years, top Rangers prospects (especially pitchers) could be sorta like being called the prettiest ugly girl at the dance. Not anymore. Holland is for real. It feels so good to hear about a top pitching prospect, see him come up (after not being traded), and have him not puke all over himself. His first two starts have been pretty good against the Astros and just ok against the Yankees. But he is apparently for real. It's not too crazy to think that he'll be the #2 starter next year. I mean a real live #2, building up to #1 soon. Not a #4 thrust into a #2 role because they don't have anybody else.

3. The pitching in general has been better, especially the starters going deeper into games. The deeper a starter goes in a game, the less the soft underbelly of the bullpen is exposed. Make no mistake, the worst pitchers on a team are in middle relief. The less they pitch the better. Last year, the main Ranger middle relievers, Josh Rupe and Jamey Wright, pitched so often that their arms almost fell off. Hopefully the trend of working deep into games can continue.

What I don't like.
1. Strikeouts. I am concerned about the Rangers offense. Whenever people talk about the Rangers, it's always, "Oh, you know they'll hit, but what about their pitching?" Well, the Rangers offense has been less than stellar. Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Hank Blalock, and Chris Davis have each performed under expectations with Davis striking out at a record pace. Over the last couple of weeks or so he has been the consummate all or nothing (mostly nothing), home runs and strikeouts. And the team in general just does not work counts or walk that much. The more you work the count the quicker you get into the sorry parts of the bullpen. I wonder if the Rangers need to look for another hitter who can work counts. Maybe they miss Milton Bradley more than they might have imagined. Don't get me wrong. The Rangers still have a strong offense and they can really beat the living daylights out of bad pitching. But they sure made Dontrelle Willis look like he was back.

2. The Bullpen. I bet every time Jon Daniels hears the song Upgrade U by Beyonce, he thinks, "I really need to upgrade my bullpen." Frankie Francisco has been awesome, but C.J. Wilson is the reincarnation of Mitch Williams, Darren O'Day was a waiver claim this year, Jason Jennings hasn't been good in like 5 years, Eddie Guardado is now a member of the Doug Jones Hall of Fame (Dan Rosendahl knows what I'm talking about- an 80 mph fastball), and if Kris Benson pitches again for the Rangers then someone needs a CAT scan. If the Rangers could add just one thing for the stretch run, I think it should be a real live 8th inning guy. How about Huston Street or Chad Qualls? Just throwing a couple of names out there. Perhaps the solution resides within the organization right now. Maybe Neftali Feliz can be the 09 Rangers version of Francisco Rodriguez.

So, there you go. My expectation is that the Rangers stay in the race the rest of the year. They have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, but they may also collapse in August as happened last year and 2005.

NHL Playoffs - 2nd Round

So, I did pretty good last round in that I picked the winners in 6 of the 8 match-ups. And if you factor in that I mentioned that the two match-ups I missed were the ones I thought could go the other way, I feel pretty good about that. Especially since the Devils were 1:28 from moving on... Jeez.

So, I'll make this quick.

Boston (1) vs Carolina (6) - Boston in 6. Carolina got lucky in getting by the Devils. Boston is better.

Washington (2) vs Pittsburgh (4) - Washington in 7. This should be a great match-up. I am extremely interested in this series. In the end, I think Ovechkin will win.

Detroit (2) vs Anaheim (8) - Detroit in 7. I think Anaheim is confident enough to take Detroit to the limit, but Detroit is more talented and playoff-tested.

Vancouver (3) vs Chicago (4) - Vancouver in 6. Luongo has taken it to another level. Chicago is playing well, and Khabibulin is as well, but Vancouver is stronger than Calgary and Goaltending will be the difference.

PJ

NHL Playoffs - 2009 Edition

So, it's that time of year again. For me, a little bitter-sweet. I love NHL playoffs, but it's very odd not to see the Stars in the postseason. I'm hoping that this year was an aberration, but that is another column. Today, I'll be going through the 8 different match-ups for the first round, and giving a couple thoughts as to who will win and why. Let's start with the East.

Boston (1) vs. Montreal (8). The classic rivalry is ignited again. The Bruins have been a consistent force all year, but the Canadiens have faltered down the stretch and limped into the playoffs. Boston has been getting great goaltending all season, the defense, which lacks star-power other than Chara, has been great, and the forwards have been great. Kessel and the return of Bergeron have been huge for this team. Montreal's goaltending can be spectacular, but Price can also be ordinary. The defense is injured and as such not as effective. The forwards can be fantastic, but if they cannot keep the puck out of their own net, then it won't matter. Boston in 6

Washington (2) vs NY Rangers (7). This is a case of opposites. Defense and Goaltending vs. Scoring. One of the best talents in the game, Ovechkin makes those around him better. Washington's Achilles will be Theodore, but if he can regain his form, not even NY's Lundqvist will be able to stop them. Washington in 5

New Jersey (3) vs Carolina (6). These two teams are more even than the records indicate. Cam Ward has been playing out of his mind and Brodeur has been shaky since becoming the all-time wins leader. The speed of Carolina will be a problem, but the defense and timely scoring of New Jersey will be enough. Brodeur will be back to form. NJ in 7

Pittsburgh (4) vs Philadelphia (5). This will be a fantastic battle. These two teams are so evenly matched, and they really don't like each other. Every category is a push except in forward talent which is why I'm going with Pittsburgh in 7.

West
San Jose (1) vs Anaheim (8). I hate the Sharks, and I'm not a big fan of Anaheim, but this should be a very good series. Selanne doesn't have to be the top guy since the emergence of Ryan and Getzlaf. Anaheim is also starting an untested Hiller against a fiercely talented offense including a rejuvenated Marleau. Sharks in 5

Detroit (2) vs Columbus (7). Hitchcock is a great equalizer and will get the most out of this Blue Jackets team. But, this is Detroit and Columbus won't stay with them long. Detroit in 5

Vancouver (3) vs St. Louis (6). St. Louis has been on a roll going into the playoffs and while Vancouver hasn't been as strong to the finish, they have all the pieces necessary to move on. Vancouver in 7

Chicago (4) vs Calgary (5). These teams are also incredibly matched up. Dynamic scoring (with an edge to the Hawks, solid defense (with an edge to Calgary), and great goaltending. But, Khabibulin, who has the best name in hockey since Nikolai Borschevsky, will be the difference maker. Chicago in 6.

So... I picked all favorites... I don't think I like that, but it's what makes the most sense. The two series where I could be way wrong. Carolina and NJ, and Sharks and Ducks. But, I'm sticking with my picks.

The Dallas Stars are done.

So, as I write, the Dallas Stars are 3 points out of a playoff spot with 10 games left to play. A year ago, the Stars were limping into the playoffs where they put on an incredible run, but that will not happen this year. They are toast and here is why. Let's start with the obvious.
1. Injuries. This team has been decimated with injuries this year, and while some people may say that isn't an excuse, I doubt any of them follow a team that has lost it's best puck-moving defensemen/power play quarterback (Sergei Zubov), It's best forward/Captain (Brenden Morrow), and for the last couple months, one of it's top two remaining forwards (Brad Richards). Those losses for extended amount of time, plus lengthy absences from others (Jere Lehtinen and Steve Ott), have contributed to the Stars let down.

2. Lost Personnel - In the off season, the Stars lost players such as Antti Miettinen Stu Barnes and Mattias Norstrom. Miettinen wasn't a huge loss, but combined with Stu's retirement, left them without a checking center they could rely on for a lot of the season. Norstrom's absence means that forwards aren't as wary of going into the crease as they would have been.

3. Turco's play. To say it has been unsteady would be an understatement. Unfortunately, the coach couldn't even put in a backup for any amount of time to give Turco a few games to re-focus because this team has no battle-tested goaltender in it's system. Any game I saw another goalie in net, I penciled in as a loss.

So, the bright side.
1. The off-season will be good for the Stars. Since they will not make the playoffs, there will be plenty of time to heal and for key personnel to decide their futures. This could be the year that both Mike Modano and Sergei Zubov decide to retire. Each could be effective for another year, but it depends a lot on health. My bet would be that Zubov retires for health reasons, and Modano plays his final year. Either way, the health of Morrow, Lehtinen, and Richards for a whole season would do wonders.

2. Next, there is the emergence of both Loui Eriksson and James Neal. These are young players who should only get better with another year. Add in that Ribiero, Richards, and Morrow are all still very young, and you've got a great nucleus to build around.

3. Finally, Turco should rebound from a very odd year. This reminds me of when Modano had an off year a few years back and came back very focused and looking like the Modano of old. I anticipate a return to form for Marty.

So, I hope that is the case because after a disappointing year, it's never too early to get excited about the next one.

110 Percent Madness 2009

The bracket is set and 110 Percent invites you to pick against our 'pros' in our third annual Pick 'em challenge. Click on 110 Percent Madness Tournament Challenge to play.

Here are the details:
Group name: 110 Percent
Group ID# 73102
Password: teameffort

This is hosted by Yahoo!, so you will need a Yahoo! ID to play.

We have a tweak to the scoring this year. In addition to the standard scoring (1 point for first round, 2 for second, 4 for third, 8-fourth, 16-fifth, 32-championship), there are also bonus points up for grabs. All you have to do is pick the upsets. For a correct upset pick, you will get bonus points equal to the difference in the seeds. For example, if you correctly pick a 10 seed over a 7 in the first round, you will get one point for the win and three bonus points for the upset (10-7).

Also, we'll do some crazy brackets like last year--coin flip, free throw percentage, that sort of thing. If you have an idea you'd like to try for a crazy bracket and have an extra email account, go ahead and give it a shot, naming the bracket appropriately (ex: Coin Flip) so we all know what brainless method is schooling us. Please, though, only one serious bracket per person--any extras will be deleted.

Good luck and let the madness begin.

Don't let the door hit ya

In PJ’s last post, he did something quite amazing. He made many accurate observations regarding Dallas and Terrell Owens, and still arrived at the wrong conclusion. Allow me to explain.

In theory, I agree with each of his observations. A head coach and an offensive coordinator should be able to control a player. And T.O.’s disruptions should be easily shrugged off by the rest of the team. However, this is not the reality of the Dallas Cowboys. We do have a puppet head coach who is unwilling and/or unable to assert his authority. And clearly, T.O. was a disruption. What should have happened last season is irrelevant. Roy Williams may or may not be the new number one, but that is also irrelevant when discussing if the Cowboys should keep T.O.

Besides all that, T.O. can’t produce like he once did. I completely agree that Jason Garrett needs to do a better job as offensive coordinator—I’m no fan of his work—but it’s not entirely his fault. T.O. simply can’t do the things he once did. PJ acknowledges this, but attributes it all to the failure of Garrett. The fact is that T.O. has lost a step, and has developed a reluctance to sacrifice his body to make a catch. And despite his reputation, T.O. did take plays off on occasion last year. This drop in production alone justifies his release.

However, that, of course, is not the only reason to let him go. We may not have the specifics in this “he said, he said” drama, but there can be no doubt that T.O. divided the locker room. Patrick Crayton followed T.O. like a puppy dog, and Roy Williams was starting to do the same. Releasing Owens sends the message to the impressionable players that there is a limit. Hopefully, this will serve as a signal to them to cut the foolishness—Orlando Scandrick has already gotten the message.

PJ also points out that most wide receivers always think they are open. True enough. If T.O. only said he was open, there would be no problem. His act went well beyond that this year, however, and that is what makes it unacceptable. PJ also points out that T.O. was never in trouble off the field. Also true, but to be honest, if I have to choose between a good teammate who has legal issues and a locker room cancer who keeps his nose clean, well, give me Michael Irvin every time.

Having said all that, T.O. is the symptom, not the problem. As I said before, a coach should be able to control his team, and one player’s antics shouldn’t derail a team. But that’s not how things work in Dallas, and that isn’t T.O.’s fault. It has been common to say in years past that Jerry the Owner should fire Jerry the GM, meaning that Jerry is a good owner but a poor talent evaluator. I don’t believe that is true anymore. Jerry the Owner is causing these problems. He has repeatedly emasculated his head coach, most recently with the gag order he implemented at Valley Ranch. Until Jerry the Owner changes the culture at Valley Ranch, these problems will continue.

T.O. is gone, and that is a good thing. By no means, however, is it the last change that needs to happen with the Cowboys.

T-Oh no...

So, I haven't written in a LONG time as I am prone to do which is odd cause I really don't have as much on my plate as normal. But, something happened last night that I really feel the need to discuss at least a little bit. The Dallas Cowboys released Terrell Owens. First, I want to look at just numbers involving this deal and then I'll go into my opinion.

Over the past three seasons, TO had more TD receptions than anyone in the NFL. Last season he led the team with yardage (1052) and TDs (10). He is due to give the Cowboys a $9 Million hit against the cap this year instead of $8 Million this and some amount next year. With TO, the Cowboys finished the last three years ranked 5th, 3rd, and 13th in total offense. And 4th, 2nd, and 18th in points. They have also won 0 playoff games.

The laundry list of why he was let go includes the following:
1. He had too much power. The offensive coordinator, QB, and even head coach had to run a certain number of plays through him or he would get frustrated.
2. He's not as good as he used to be. He's 35 and WR's after that age tend to lose a step.
3. They've got the incumbent WR waiting in Roy Williams.
4. His antics are a constant distraction in and out of the lockerroom.

So, now for my opinion: I don't like this move. Not yet anyway. Here's why.
1. So he had too much power... he is still a player right? He's not the coach, not in charge of personnel? Doesn't call plays? So what if he pouts if he isn't getting the ball. Shouldn't that be up to the coaches to handle? I don't have the numbers in front of me exactly, but how many games did they win when he wasn't prominently involved? I would wager it is small. If the Cowboys had something other than a puppet for a head coach, he could have handled that.
2. He's declining. Yea, WR's tend to do so. But, other coordinators tend to find ways to make those wideouts more effective. I'm still not sure that Jason Garrett knows that he needs to get TO in motion or some other method so that he can escape the jamming at the line that tended to make him less effective.
3. Roy Williams? Really? With the Cowboys last year and the other teams' best cover team on TO, he had 19 receptions for 1 TD in ten games. I'm not that impressed so far.
4. His antics are a disruption. His celebrations did give the Cowboys 15 yard penalties after he scored, but he didn't take plays off. He ran solid routes, and other than his drop-happy first year in which he still managed to lead the team in TD's, he caught the ball when it was thrown to him.
Off the field he was always getting in trouble and alienating teammates... oh wait... he wasn't ever in trouble. You don't hear about him off the field unless some reporter is shoving a mic in his face and asking if the Cowboys used him enough. He would say no, as would EVERY OTHER WR IN THE LEAGUE! No receiver ever thinks he gets the ball enough. There were rumors of lockerroom issues, but nothing really solid.

Now, TO has had issues in the past that continue to haunt him. But, since he's been with the Boys, did he throw his QB under the bus? No. Did he work every game? Yes. Did he divide the lockerroom as it was said in the past? That's unclear, but apparently enough for Jerry.

Based on what I know so far, here are my predictions for next season:
1. I think that unless the Cowboys can get a top-flight receiver to replace Owens, which I don't believe they have in Roy Williams, there will be another season of missing the playoffs.
2. A NFC East opponent will pick up TO (Don't count out the Giants or Redskins) and he will kill the Cowboys every time they play.
3. Fans will continue to hate Jerry Jones the GM and wish he would be a quiet owner.

In the end, this was not a good move for the Cowboys. I hope I'm wrong.

Schadenfreude

The last couple of days, I've been under the weather. Sore throat, runny nose, congestion, mild fever. You know, the regular stuff. I posted my status on facebook as "Russell is still sick." Today, I thought about posting, "I am feeling schadenfreude." But I was afraid someone would reply, "Is it contagious?"

No, schadenfreude is a German word which basically means having a feeling of joy at someone else misfortune. It's not generally a positive feeling to have. I mean, what kind of jerk enjoys it when bad things happens to others? However, tonight, I am feeling a great deal of joy at the misfortune of Philadelphia Eagles' fans. They lost their forth NFC championship game in their last five tries.

Admittedly, the Eagles have an enviable record. In the last ten years since the arrival of Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid, the Eagles have made the playoffs seven times, the NFC championship five times (three of which they played at home), and the Super Bowl once (which they lost to the Patriots). But it must really suck to get to the NFC championship, be favored, and just know in your heart of hearts that your team is not going to have whatever it takes to cross that threshold.

Now, honestly, I would gladly trade the Cowboys' recent history for the Eagles. These two teams played a winner take all game just three weeks ago and the Cowboys didn't even bother to show up. But at the end of the day, let's take a quick look at the trophy case: Five to nothing. So, Eagles fans: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

If I were in Jerry Jones' shoes...

One talk radio guy I listen to alot is a money guy named Dave Ramsey. People call in with their money problems and he tells them what they need to do. It usually has something to do with selling stuff and getting out debt. He often prefaces his advice with "If I were in your shoes, I would..."

As I've been thinking about the Cowboys and what they need to do, I've usually been at a loss past firing Wade Phillips. But after I thought about it from the perspective of what I would do if I were in Jerry's shoes, some ideas come to mind. (Since I'm in Jerry's shoes, I'll use the first person.) I'm going resist Jerry Jones' skin jokes, though.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** I don't expect ANY of these things to actually happen, but here are my ideas.

1. I'm going to call a press conference (I expect Jerry to do this any time now, but he surely won't say this) and say that my biggest mistake was firing Jimmy Johnson and my second biggest mistake was hiring Barry Switzer. Just about every mistake I have made since that second Super Bowl win (atrocious drafts from 94-02, hiring Chan Gailey, Dave Campo, and Wade Phillips; signing Deion Sanders, not drafting Randy Moss, trading for Joey Galloway, signing Terrell Owens and Adam Jones, etc.) has come in reaction to those two mistakes. (Yes, I'm saying Deion Sanders was a mistake despite the fact that it helped bring us a fifth Super Bowl title. It along with Switzer coming was the beginning of undisciplined play and attitude that has plagued this team since 1994 and still plagues it today.) I personally apologize to Jimmy Johnson, in fact, he's here at the press conference.

2. In that same press conference, I fire Jerry Jones, the GM. Just looking over my years as GM since the last Super Bowl in 95-96 season, the Cowboys have won exactly 1 playoff game in only six appearances. My record of player acquisition has gone back and forth between awful and dumbfounding with small bits of greatness here and there. Let's look at the draft since 1994 when Jimmy Johnson left. Out of 122 players drafted, I drafted 4 All Pros (Larry Allen, Roy Williams, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware) and 7 Pro Bowlers (Coakley, Adams, Ellis, Gurode, Newman, Barber, and Folk). Think of some of the trades I've made: Two #1s for Joey Galloway and #1 for Roy Williams. I could go on about dumb picks and terrible free agent signings, but it can get laborious. I have a record only the Detroit Lions and Texas Rangers could admire.

3. So, who should I hire as GM? How about Jimmy Johnson? Or throw all my money at Bill Cowher and give him controll. Or how about Scott Pioli or Bill Polian? I find the best football man who will work for me, give him control, and get out of the way. I want him to hire the coach and I promise that I won't go over his head. What kind of coach? I don't know, but no retreads. I had that not too long ago, but I decided I'd rather have Terrell Owens than Bill Parcells. I know Parcells wasn't perfect. His draft record had some issues as well, specifically on the offensive line, but he was building something that going in the right direction when he decided that he was too old for this stuff. And that leads me to my next moves.

4. The biggest problem I see with the team is a complete lack of discipline, which can be seen in the dumb penalties and the continual December collapses. I start right away by meeting with the team and telling them the days of "Camp Cupcake" are no more. I want a change in the culture up there. Some guys are going to get cut, and since the real Jerry has saved me the trouble of cutting Adam Jones, I don't have to worry about that. In fact, remember that press conference? One of the things I say is that I am really sorry about getting Jones to begin with. He was terrible on the field and a disaster off it. This is the last time I sign a guy like Jones. That reminds me. Tank Johnson? Gone. I going to hit guys where they feel it: in the wallet and in playing time. If a guy isn't ready for training camp, he can be suspended a game. If a player continues to make the same mistakes on the field (Flozell Adams and false starts for example), they can sit on the bench for a series. Even if it means losing a game, we have to change the culture of this team. I assume (talking as Russell, not as Jerry) that Terrell Owens is a cancer in the locker room. If that is true, then Owens needs to be looking for another team, salary cap be damned. Of course, if he isn't a problem, then he still has a place here. But this year, there were clearly problems in the locker room. Whoever was behind the problems, needs to either get their stuff together or hit the road. Again, I know there is a salary cap, but I think the problems we see every year are indicative of a systemic problem that requires a radical change.

5. Another change I want to see is in the offense. I look at this team and see a group tailor made for a power running game. I see a huge offensive line and three really good backs, as well as a quarterback with a troubling interception problem. (Speaking of which. If Romo continues to throw ridiculous passes and interceptions, he can sit. That means I want a back up who can actually play. No more Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger.) I also see an NFL in which most of the playoff teams are running teams. I mean why in the world does 3rd and 2 require a shotgun? We should be able to run the ball down people's throats. That's the offense I want to see.

So that's my prescription. What do you think?

110 Percent Hall of Fame 2008: Barry Sanders

As a Cowboys fan, I always sided with Emmitt Smith in the "Who's the greatest running back?" debate. And Emmitt provided plenty of support for my case: Super Bowl rings, MVPs, rushing titles, TD records: Emmitt had them all.

But Barry was no slouch, either. He was a Pro Bowler in each of his ten NFL seasons, and was first team All Pro six times. When he retired at thirty, he declined the opportunity to break the career rushing record that season. Emmitt set the record four years later, but Barry could have shattered it with only a few more seasons in his prime. Look at that picture again--look at those hips, that ankle. Bodies are simply not supposed to move that way. Most pictures of Barry look like bad Photoshop jobs--if it wasn't Sanders, we wouldn't believe it was real.

And let's not forget that while the NFL instituted the "Emmitt rule" to keep players from taking off their helmets on the field, Sanders quietly handed the ball to the ref after yet another score--classy.

Bottom line: Emmitt won because he had help, starting with an awesome offensive line and fellow stars at quarterback and wide receiver, not to mention a killer defense. Barry had none of these things. Any success the Lions had, including the win over Emmitt and the Cowboys in the 1991 playoffs, was due almost entirely to Barry.

In fact, that's what led to Barry's early retirement. Ten years of not getting a commitment to win from the Lions was enough--Barry walked away from it all. I was so convinced he would come back during the season, either with the Lions or another team, that I used a late round pick in my fantasy draft on him. Unfortunately for me and other NFL fans, I was wrong on that pick--Sanders never even looked back.

With Emmitt joining Sanders in retirement in 2004, the distance of time has finally allowed me to make a confession. Taking nothing away from Emmitt Smith: Barry was better.

Cowboy Fan? Yea, I still am. Despite you Mr. Jones

So, you may be wondering who this is as the last time I contributed a post was... well.. I'd rather not say. But, after watching (most) of the debacle on Sunday and having a day or two to digest it, I felt the need to address a few things. I agree with Rus' comments about the team having no heart. To point it out that much more, a fan actually picketed the Cowboys facility yesterday and was accosted by Bradie James. Normally, I'd make a funny joke about how James should have had more heart on Sunday than he did against this fan. But, I don't think James is to blame for the loss on Sunday. No, it has to go to the top, and like it always does, will go no where from there.

For the past couple days, I've been thinking that the Cowboys should fire the coach, but that's not the place to start. The GM is the one who really needs to be fired. Giving a large contract to Romo before he had a full couple of seasons as a starter was either shrewd, or foolish and right now, it's looking like the latter. Trading draft picks for Roy Williams who has done nothing since (or before) was foolish (I'm censoring myself in wording). Siding with Terrell Owens rather than a multiple Super Bowl winning coach was foolish. Bringing in character guys like Pacman and giving him opportunity without having good reason on or off the field was foolish. All of these things would have led any other GM in the league to be tossed to the curb. The problem of course being that the GM and Owner share the same skin (No Jimmy Johnson "Michael Jackson" jokes please).

After the GM goes, the coach needs to go next. He's stated that he plans on changing his approach a little next season, but to me those sounded like the words he was given to say by the GM who loves having a puppet for a coach. I understand the players have to execute a plan, but three things were curious to me during the game. 1. The team did not look ready to play, as they haven't most of the year. They have started slow especially lately. That is completely inexcusable in the type of game they were in on Sunday. 2. The defense seemed completely confused whenever Westbrook would slide down to a receiver position (something the Eagles do quite frequently). I'm not saying that the coach isn't putting time in watching film. I'm not naive enough to really think that, but that should be a formation that is heavily practiced against. 3. The team has completely taken on the form of its coach with the "whatever happens, happens". While that's a nice attitude to having in life, the absolute last thing I want to hear from my quarterback after that game is: "well, if this is the worst thing to ever happen to me, I've got a pretty good life going on." But, I'll get to Tony Romo in a minute.

Offensive Coordinator... I really don't know. For the brilliance he has shown, Jason Garrett has also shown some curious decisions. Throw out the games Tony was out, because I think Jessica Simpson would be a better option than Brad Johnson at QB. Not getting Felix Jones involved more before he was hurt was a curious choice. There is some confusion whether it is Tony or Jason trying to be forced to involve certain receivers, but either way, why are big physical receivers not being used like they were last season early on? The offense has seemed awful, and a lot of that has to go to Garrett. I think he's gone if the Lions want him. I wouldn't want to be associated with this mess at this point. I don't think it's a good thing for Dallas to lose him however. Yes, he had a bad season, but there seems to be a lot of whispers that was more to do with no support from the owner or coach.

Defensive Coordinator.. Remember when the Cowboys improved their defense after Wade threw his coordinator under the bus because they had a couple really good defensive games right when everyone got healthy? How did that work out when they played the last two teams of the season?

Players. You can't fire all your players and I don't think they should. There are some very talented people on the team, but they all need to keep their mouths shut. Romo - act like you care more. Nothing inspires confidence in your on-field leader like hearing the quote from above. Also, see how Peyton Manning has extra practices with his receivers to work on timing? Maybe try that or something. Witten - Change NOTHING. There is not a coach in the league who wouldn't want Witten as their tight end. (Or maybe even QB after last week). Owens - Pipe Down. When you were holding your peace during the games Romo was out, it was refreshing. Insinuating that the world is against you just makes you look like the primadonna everyone already thinks you are. Roy Williams - Actually, I like to pretend that neither one still plays for the Cowboys. Pacman - Make a play. Any play..

So, where does that leave me. My favorite team is awful and I don't think they'll turn around anytime soon. My second favorite team finished 11-5 and is not in the playoffs while Arizona (9-7) and San Diego (8-8) are hosting first round games. I lost the two rounds of playoffs in Fantasy Football, and saw my lead disappear and then finished fourth in Pick 'em. I think I'm glad football season is over.

Now to get to work on that Larry Bird column. Sorry Chris...

No Heart

I’m writing this at half time and there is no freakin way this is turning around. If it happens, I’ll gladly eat all the crow in the world, but I just don’t believe it can happen.

I have always been a Cowboys fan. I take pride in the fact that I was a Cowboys fan when 3-13 and 1-15 was the results and Steve Peuller and Paul Palmer wore the silver and blue. In fact, I go further than that. I vaguely remember The Catch and No, Danny No!

But I’m just completely dismayed by the performance in this team this year in general and this game in particular. In just the first half, I saw all this aspects of the 12 Days of Christmas I wrote about, except 12 men on the field. Missed tackles, terrible blocking, horrendous play calling, stupid interceptions, dropped passes, dumb penalties, bad play by their best players (Terrence Newman, Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, DeMarcus Ware, Flozell Adams, Roy Williams- In fact, I’m trying to think of someone who played well so far and I can’t do it.)

The facts are the facts. This team has no heart. There are, as is said in Texas, all hat and no cattle. This team is a collection of ill fitting parts that apparently can’t play together to save their lives. With everything to play for, the Cowboys are playing like it’s a preseason game.

I can’t tell you that I’m turning in my Cowboys fan badge, but this team is just asking for the fan base to turn on them.

Added midway through the 3rd (34-3): Back in 60s before they won their first Super Bowl that they couldn't win the big one. At least those teams lost big ones in the playoffs. (Now it's 41-3)